Premier League · England · Regular Season - 4

Crystal Palace–Ipswich

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Selhurst Park, London

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Crystal PalaceA. Khalaili (assist: D. Kamada)
23'IpswichEmersonn (assist: L. Davis)
34'Crystal PalaceA. Disasi · red card
45'IpswichL. Davis (assist: Emersonn)
75'Crystal PalaceJ. Strand Larsen (assist: D. Kamada)
90'Ipswich

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		Ipswich
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
389	Passes	452
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 2.16 · Ipswich 0.93. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Crystal Palace 11 · Ipswich 12; on target 4 and 6.

Announced lineup

Crystal Palace

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: P. Sage

Starting XI

W. Benítezgoalkeeper
H. Ahanordefender
A. Disasidefender
C. Richardsdefender
T. Mitchellmidfielder
A. Whartonmidfielder
Q. Timbermidfielder
A. Khalailimidfielder
Yeremy Pinomidfielder
D. Kamadamidfielder
J. Strand Larsenforward

Substitutes

B. Chilwell
C. Doucoure

Unavailable players

Crystal Palace

C. Riadout · Knee Injury
E. Nketiahout · injury
I. Sarrout · Groin Injury
J. Matetaout · Hamstring Injury

Ipswich

J. Taylorout · Knee Injury
A. Matusiwadoubtful · Muscle Injury
J. Philogenedoubtful · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.5%: “Crystal Palace to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Crystal Palace, 1.10 for Ipswich.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Crystal Palace win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,550 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win50.5%

Draw26.1%

Ipswich to win23.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Ipswich

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: G. O'Neil

Starting XI

K. Scherpengoalkeeper
L. Davisdefender
J. Greavesdefender
I. Diopdefender
D. O'Sheadefender
E. Palaciosmidfielder
S. Lukićmidfielder
J. Clarkemidfielder
J. Encisomidfielder
A. Fatawumidfielder
Emersonnforward

Substitutes

A. Ouattara
C. Akpom
C. Kipré
C. Walton
D. Maeda
Florentino
J. Philogene
M. Núñez
Z. Flemming

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:14.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Crystal Palace win or draw76.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or Ipswich win49.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Crystal Palace lead at half-time47.0%

Level at half-time36.8%

Ipswich lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Crystal Palace ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Ipswich ahead53.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1550 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Crystal Palace: at least 9Actual: 6
Ipswich: at least 9Actual: 16

Corners

Crystal Palace: at least 4Actual: 6
Ipswich: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (57.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score2.16

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ipswich concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ipswich score0.93

Attack: Ipswich score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.6%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1550 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.