Premier League · England · Regular Season - 4

Liverpool–Fulham

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Anfield, Liverpool

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Liverpool		Fulham
14	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
494	Passes	398
411	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Liverpool 1.87 · Fulham 1.07. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Liverpool 14 · Fulham 10; on target 3 and 4.
Liverpool kept the ball more (56%).

Announced lineup

Liverpool

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Andoni Iraola

Starting XI

Alisson Beckergoalkeeper
K. Tsimikasdefender
V. van Dijkdefender
J. Jacquetdefender
R. Araújodefender
R. Gravenberchmidfielder
D. Szoboszlaimidfielder
B. Barcolamidfielder
F. Wirtzmidfielder
Víctor Muñozmidfielder
A. Isakforward

Substitutes

A. Mac Allister
C. Gakpo

Unavailable players

Liverpool

C. Bradleyout · Knee Injury
F. Chiesaout · Back Injury
G. Leoniout · Knee Injury
H. Ekitikeout · Achilles Tendon Injury
J. Gomezout · Muscle Injury
B. Barcoladoubtful · injury
C. Gakpodoubtful · Muscle Injury
M. Kerkezdoubtful · injury

Fulham

T. Cairneyout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.25 for Liverpool, 1.11 for Fulham.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (1X — Liverpool win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,550 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Liverpool to win63.4%

Draw20.5%

Fulham to win16.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Fulham

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Álvaro Arbeloa

Starting XI

B. Lenogoalkeeper
A. Robinsondefender
C. Basseydefender
D. Affengruberdefender
T. Castagnedefender
S. Charlesmidfielder
S. Bergemidfielder
A. Iwobimidfielder
Joshua Kingmidfielder
Oscar Bobbmidfielder
Gonzalo Garcíaforward

Substitutes

B. Lecomte
César Palacios
E. Smith Rowe
H. Larsson
J. Andersen
K. Tete
Kevin
Manuel Ángel
Rodrigo Muniz

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:14.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Liverpool win or draw83.9%

12 — any result other than a draw79.5%

X2 — draw or Fulham win36.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Liverpool lead at half-time46.2%

Level at half-time39.7%

Fulham lead at half-time14.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Liverpool ahead or level85.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Fulham ahead53.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1550 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Liverpool: at least 9Actual: 11
Fulham: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Liverpool: at least 5Actual: 5
Fulham: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Liverpool score1.87

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Fulham's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fulham score1.07

Attack: Fulham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%1–19.6%2–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1550 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.