Premier League · England · Regular Season - 3

Nottingham Forest–Tottenham

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		Tottenham
12	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	10
2	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
311	Passes	456
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 1.58 · Tottenham 1.09. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Nottingham Forest 12 · Tottenham 11; on target 2 and 0.
Tottenham kept the ball more (59%).

Unavailable players

Nottingham Forest

N. Savonaout · Knee Injury
I. Sangaredoubtful · Calf Injury

Tottenham

D. Kulusevskiout · Knee Injury
J. Maddisonout · Knock
W. Odobertout · Knee Injury
X. Simonsout · Knee Injury
Savinhodoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

C. Pawson→

4.07

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

107

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.8%: “Nottingham Forest to win”. Second comes “Tottenham to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Nottingham Forest, 1.36 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,542 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win38.8%

Draw27.2%

Tottenham to win33.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time46.2%

Level at half-time39.4%

Tottenham lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Nottingham Forest ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Tottenham ahead53.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1542 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nottingham Forest: at least 10Actual: 22
Tottenham: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Nottingham Forest: at least 4Actual: 2
Tottenham: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.58

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score1.09

Attack: Tottenham score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.4%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.