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Premier League · England · Regular Season - 2
- Kick-off
- Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 16:30
- Status
- Match Finished
- Venue
- Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
What the model said, and what happened
Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct
This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record
Goals and red cards
- 62'NewcastleA. Elanga (assist: A. Dedić)
- 72'NewcastleY. Wissa (assist: Nick Woltemade)
Match statistics
| Tottenham | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 10 | Shots inside the box | 7 |
| 0 | Goalkeeper saves | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 58% | Possession | 42% |
| 498 | Passes | 373 |
| 442 | Accurate passes | 314 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
What we expected, and what happened
- Expected goals before kick-off: Tottenham 1.33 · Newcastle 1.50. On the pitch: 0-2.
- Shots Tottenham 17 · Newcastle 11; on target 6 and 2.
- Tottenham kept the ball more (58%).
Unavailable players
Tottenham
- D. Kulusevskiout · Knee Injury
- J. Maddisonout · Knock
- P. M. Sarrout · Muscle Injury
- W. Odobertout · Knee Injury
- X. Simonsout · Knee Injury
- M. Kudusdoubtful · Muscle Injury
Newcastle
- D. Burnout · Ankle Injury
- Joelintonout · Thigh Injury
- V. Livramentoout · Hamstring Injury
- W. Osulaout · injury
Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.
Referee
Peter Bankes, England→There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.
Model prediction
Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.
We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).
This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.
Why this prediction?
- The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Tottenham to win”. Second comes “Newcastle to win” at 31.0%.
- Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Tottenham, 1.37 for Newcastle.
- The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
- These values were computed from 1,534 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
Tottenham to win42.9%
Draw26.1%
Newcastle to win31.0%
When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →
Both teams to score63.2%
When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — Tottenham win or draw69.0%
12 — any result other than a draw73.9%
X2 — draw or Newcastle win57.1%
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).
First half
Actual: 0–0Tottenham lead at half-time20.4%
Level at half-time39.6%
Newcastle lead at half-time40.0%
First-half double chance
1X — Tottenham ahead or level60.0%
12 — not level at half-time60.4%
X2 — level or Newcastle ahead79.6%
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1534 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Expected fouls and corners
Fouls
- Tottenham
- at least 12Actual: 15
- Newcastle
- at least 10Actual: 9
Corners
- Tottenham
- at least 5Actual: 9
- Newcastle
- at least 4Actual: 7
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
Goals market
3+ goals58.4%
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
What these probabilities rest on
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
How many goals Tottenham score1.33
Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Newcastle's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).
How many goals Newcastle score1.50
Attack: Newcastle score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).
Most likely scorelines
1–112.7%2–19.9%1–28.2%
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 1534 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 153 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.