League · Germany

Bundesliga 2023-24 statistics

2023-24 season

Matches played: 306
Goals per match: 3.22
Home win: 44%
Draw: 26%
Away win: 30%
3+ goals: 62%
Both teams scored: 62%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayer Leverkusen	34	28	6	0	89	24	+65	90
2	VfB Stuttgart	34	23	4	7	78	39	+39	73
3	Bayern München	34	23	3	8	94	45	+49	72
4	RB Leipzig	34	19	8	7	77	39	+38	65
5	Borussia Dortmund	34	18	9	7	68	43	+25	63
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	14	9	51	50	+1	47
7	1899 Hoffenheim	34	13	7	14	66	66	0	46
8	1. FC Heidenheim	34	10	12	12	50	55	-5	42
9	Werder Bremen	34	11	9	14	48	54	-6	42
10	SC Freiburg	34	11	9	14	45	58	-13	42
11	FC Augsburg	34	10	9	15	50	60	-10	39
12	VfL Wolfsburg	34	10	7	17	41	56	-15	37
13	FSV Mainz 05	34	7	14	13	39	51	-12	35
14	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	7	13	14	56	67	-11	34
15	Union Berlin	34	9	6	19	33	58	-25	33
16	VfL Bochum	34	7	12	15	42	74	-32	33
17	1. FC Köln	34	5	12	17	28	60	-32	27
18	SV Darmstadt 98	34	3	8	23	30	86	-56	17

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Bayern München	93.6%	100.0%	0.0%	81.4
Borussia Dortmund	4.3%	90.1%	0.0%	65.7
Bayer Leverkusen	0.9%	67.2%	0.0%	59.7
VfB Stuttgart	0.8%	62.9%	0.0%	58.9
RB Leipzig	0.3%	39.0%	0.3%	54.8
1899 Hoffenheim	0.1%	10.0%	3.5%	47.6
Eintracht Frankfurt	0.0%	7.4%	6.0%	45.9
SV Elversberg	0.0%	5.7%	6.1%	45.5
SC Paderborn 07	0.0%	5.6%	5.7%	45.4
FSV Mainz 05	0.0%	4.9%	7.6%	44.7
SC Freiburg	0.0%	3.0%	11.5%	42.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach	0.0%	1.9%	14.8%	41.5
Hamburger SV	0.0%	0.9%	23.1%	39.1
FC Augsburg	0.0%	0.5%	30.9%	37.6
Union Berlin	0.0%	0.5%	31.2%	37.5
1. FC Köln	0.0%	0.3%	37.9%	36.4
Werder Bremen	0.0%	0.3%	44.3%	35.2
FC Schalke 04	0.0%	0.0%	77.0%	29.4

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	576	64%
≥ 60%	325	71%
≥ 70%	163	79%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1198	82%
≥ 80%	623	87%
≥ 85%	339	91%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2078	62%
≥ 55%	1746	65%
≥ 60%	1173	70%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 55%
Always pick home: 43%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 75%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 25% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1131. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →