League · Turkey

1. Lig 2025-26 statistics

2025-26 season

Matches played: 379
Goals per match: 2.94
Home win: 45%
Draw: 25%
Away win: 30%
3+ goals: 54%
Both teams scored: 51%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Erzurumspor FK	38	23	12	3	82	27	+55	81
2	Esenler Erokspor	38	21	11	6	81	35	+46	74
3	Amed	38	21	11	6	81	42	+39	74
4	Çorum FK	38	21	8	9	63	39	+24	71
5	Bodrum FK	38	18	10	10	71	39	+32	64
6	Pendikspor	38	16	15	7	58	33	+25	63
7	Keçiörengücü	38	16	12	10	73	43	+30	60
8	Bandırmaspor	38	16	12	10	47	34	+13	60
9	Manisa F.K.	38	16	7	15	57	56	+1	55
10	Sivasspor	38	14	11	13	47	43	+4	53
11	İstanbulspor	38	13	13	12	57	55	+2	52
12	Sarıyer	38	15	7	16	44	44	0	52
13	Iğdır FK	38	13	11	14	52	54	-2	50
14	Vanspor FK	38	13	10	15	52	47	+5	49
15	Boluspor	38	14	6	18	61	57	+4	48
16	Ümraniyespor	38	13	7	18	47	51	-4	46
17	Serik Spor	38	11	6	21	44	75	-31	39
18	Sakaryaspor	38	8	10	20	45	72	-27	34
19	Hatayspor	38	2	8	28	33	102	-69	14
20	Adana Demirspor	38	1	3	34	22	169	-147	6

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Kayserispor	36.0%	77.6%	0.0%	66.5
Esenler Erokspor	21.3%	65.4%	0.1%	63.6
Keçiörengücü	13.4%	51.7%	0.5%	60.9
Bandırmaspor	7.8%	39.0%	0.7%	58.7
Bursaspor	5.0%	29.7%	1.3%	56.9
Bodrum FK	3.4%	24.2%	1.9%	55.7
Fatih Karagümrük	2.4%	18.3%	2.9%	54.4
Manisa F.K.	2.4%	18.1%	3.5%	54.0
Batman Petrolspor	2.7%	17.8%	3.5%	53.9
Pendikspor	1.9%	16.1%	3.7%	53.7
Mardin 1969	1.4%	13.5%	4.5%	52.8
Sarıyer	1.3%	12.9%	5.0%	52.5
İstanbulspor	0.5%	6.1%	14.2%	48.7
Iğdır FK	0.3%	4.3%	14.3%	48.0
Ümraniyespor	0.1%	1.5%	28.4%	44.5
Boluspor	0.1%	1.3%	32.3%	43.7
Sivasspor	0.1%	1.2%	32.1%	43.7
Antalyaspor	0.0%	0.8%	37.8%	42.8
Vanspor FK	0.0%	0.3%	56.8%	39.4
Muğlaspor	0.0%	0.2%	56.6%	39.3

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	510	67%
≥ 60%	217	81%
≥ 70%	105	94%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	921	85%
≥ 80%	466	90%
≥ 85%	254	94%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	1331	54%
≥ 55%	534	58%
≥ 60%	124	62%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 51%
Always pick home: 44%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 75%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 25% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1327. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →